Week 8:
Project Overview and Example

Agenda

Project 1 reminder and details

Example project

Project Overview

Three parts:

Presentation video
Written report (added to your website)
Peer evaluation

Make sure you tell a story with your data

Have a hook to grab the audience attention, give your audience context, pose your question, then answer it

Project Instructions

Context

We are analysts at The Carrot Project; you are growers attending a workshop

Example project: Will carrot prices continue to rise?

Carrots are delicious and people buy them (you should provide more context)

Carrot prices have been growing

Trend (orange) calculated from STL decomposition using LOESS. The Producer Price Index (PPI) program measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output.

Will prices continue to rise or will they return to past trends?

Analysis plan

Decompose carrot prices to understand fundamentals

Forecast carrot prices over the next 5 years

Is it just seasonality?

Additive decomposition of PPI

Is it input prices?

Will prices continue to rise?

Forecast Scenario: high prices persist

Forecast based on exponential smoothing of components

Forecast from Jan 2023 (for Bekzat)

Same ETS forecast based on data truncated at January 2023

Conclusion

Carrot prices are near all time highs

If current prices remain high, the price index is expected to reach nearly 350

Our guess: Carrot prices continue to grow but at a slower rate

Questions

Conclusion (from last year)